EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Town of Amherst, NY has been experiencing a constant economic growth for years. The town has managed to attract population and businesses better than City of Buffalo. However, City of Buffalo is starting to attract population better than Town of Amherst in the region. Also based on numerous studies, cities’ future economic situation is highly dependent on the presence of the millennials and creative class. This group also tends to live in cities with mixed-use, walkable neighborhoods. In this context, Buffalo because of its historic neighborhoods with high walkability rate and density, would be able to attract this creative population better than Amherst. Given these facts, Town of Amherst will have difficulties in attracting this population in future with its suburban-style development pattern. The town’s future economic situation would be at risk.
Since the millennials tend to live in more walkable neighborhoods, it seems fundamental to see the current situation of walkability index in different neighborhoods of Town of Amherst. To better understand Amherst in the context of its neighborhoods’ spatial features that encourage walkability, this project tries to quantify related variables in block groups to measure walkability index. The main focus is on defining walkability index for each census block group in Amherst by using the geographical information systems. After presenting the walkability index to each census block group, recommendations will be offered to best take advantage of the current walkable neighborhoods in the town, and guide future developments in block groups with lower walkability index in a path that they can be more walkable with the focus of attracting the creative population.
Also for creating an accurate framework for policies and recommendations, the relationship between block groups’ walkability index and the proportion of vacant lots in them will be explored. Based on this relationship, different types of policies such as neighborhood character preservation, traffic control, and developments guidelines policies will be introduced. For the final section of this project, there is a list of organizations and the processes that have to be undertaken in order to implement the proposed policies.
ANALYSIS AND METHODOLOGY
Given the fact that physical environments influence walkability, measuring these impacts and how one environment can encourage walking is the main goal of the analysis section. There are numerous indices introduced by several studies that facilitate measuring neighborhoods’ walkability. Among these methods, GIS-based approaches were developed by many researchers to quantify the physical attributes of one neighborhood that encourage walking. Since there are many ways to measure neighborhood walkability, the correlation between the results of the GIS-based approaches for one neighborhood and how actually the neighborhood is walkable in real world has to be proven.
The correlation between the method used in this project, and how the neighborhoods actually are in encouraging walking is high. The results imply that using this GIS-based method is rational while other methods are more time and energy consuming. Following paragraphs would elaborate on the method and the variables used to define walkability index.
For calculating walkability index for Amherst’s block groups via GIS, certain spatial variables were used. These spatial variables are derived from former studies in this field. The variables of residential density, streets connectivity (intersection density), the land-use mix, and retail floor area ratio (FAR) were used in defining walkability index. Following paragraphs elaborates on these variables, their definitions and how they are normalized to be used for calculating walkability.
Normalization Process: To normalize the calculated ratios so that they can be inserted to the walkability index formula with other variables, all of the calculated numbers ranked into deciles, where the lowest decile receive the value of 1, the second decile block groups earn 2 and so on to the last decile. This applies to all of the variables.
Walkability Index: Using measured residential density, intersection density, land use mix, and retail floor area ratio, the walkability index was calculated. The sum of the mentioned variables would be the walkability index for each of the block groups. Also, since higher residential density was crucial for having more livable and diverse neighborhoods, the weight of 2 was given to this variable in calculating the walkability index. All the variables were ranked by the number between 1 and 10, and a weight of 2 was given to residential density (so the range would be between 2 and 20). The final walkability index would be a number between 5 and 50, where higher scores mean more walkable neighborhoods and vice versa
FINDINGS
To analyze the situation of the each of the variables in walkability index, a map for each of the variables is created. Afterwards, a map showing each block group walkability index will demonstrate the block groups with final measured walkability rates.
This map indicates each block group’s residential density. Numbers are based on the decile that each block group is ranked in. For example twenty means a block group with the highest residential density in comparison to other block groups and 2 means a block group with lowest residential density in comparison to others.
This map depicts block groups’ intersection density (number of intersections divided by the area of each block group in acres). Higher concentration of block groups with high rate of intersection density can be observed in South of the Sheridan Drive, and in older neighborhoods of Amherst. According to this map, these block groups have higher ratio of intersections within them, which possibly means there are different numbers of route choices available for pedestrians to choose from between particular destinations. Northern Areas generally has block groups with lower intersection density. Likewise residential density map, darker block groups have higher intersection density in comparison to others and lighter ones have a lower intersection density.
This map depicts retail floor area ratio. Southern block groups of Maple Road have the block groups with higher FAR rate while generally Northern areas have lower FAR rates.
This map demonstrates the land use mix variable. Block groups in South of the Sheridan Drive, especially in Village of Williamsville and its eastern areas have the highest rates. Distribution of block groups with low land use mix rate does not follow a specific geographical pattern.
This map depicts the final walkability scores for Amherst’s block groups derived from the sum of the previous variables’ scores (highest possible score is 50 and the lowest one is 5). Block groups in older neighborhoods of Amherst along Southern parts of Bailey Avenue and Village of Williamsville are the most walkable block groups in comparison to other block groups. Most of the Amherst’s Northern block groups are not walkable, which is a disadvantage since Amherst has UB North Campus as a magnet in attracting creative class but the town cannot sustain this population in these Northern block groups.
To see future possible sites for development, map below shows vacant lots proportion. Block groups with lower walkability have the highest proportion of vacant lots. While block groups with higher walkability have lower proportion of vacant lots. There are numerous opportunities in developing block groups with lower walkability rates in a way that they can be more walkable.
To see where the higher concentrations of people with age of between 20 and 34 are (possible creative class), map blow shows their proportion to the total population. The highest concentration of this group is along Bailey Avenue, while in other block groups the ratio is significantly low. The rent and land median price and distance to UB campuses possibly play a role here but still the current pattern is important for future policies. Overall, in more walkable neighborhoods, the ratio of this population is higher.
Having different variables regarding Amherst’s walking environment, vacant lots proportion, and living patterns of millennials geographically mapped and understood, recommendations for improving walkability of block groups can be formed.
RECOMMENDATIONS
To create a rational framework for recommendations, based on the block groups’ different walkability scores and different proportion of vacant lots, block groups are categorized into 3 groups. Table below presents these categories. Proposed policies of this project that aim the structure of neighborhoods would be long-term policies.
To geographically understand these different groups (and places in the middle of the range), map below shows these categories. Based upon this categorization, policies will be proposed.
Block Groups with High Walkability Index and low Proportion of Vacant Lot:
These neighborhoods are mostly in the older areas of Amherst, they have a sense of community and place with good pedestrian networks which facilitates walking even more. Policies for these block groups would be preservation policies:
Preserve the character of these block groups by having future developments aligned with the historic character of them (ongoing process).
Any new commercial developments should have a high floor area ratio to be compatible with the character of these block groups (long term).
All future proposed developments for these block groups should not cause any gentrification or increase in housing prices (long term).
Increase public transportation accessibility within these block groups with a goal of having a better connection with UB campuses to best address transportation needs of the Millennials. UB as an educational hub would be a main destination for future creative class (long term).
Where it does not conflict with traffic flow, automobiles’ speed limit should be decreased to best facilitate walking (long term).
Future on-site survey should be carried out to address the physical barriers in pedestrian sidewalks to resolve any difficulties that can happen in walking (short term).
Block groups with low-medium walkability index and low-medium proportion of vacant lots:
These block groups have low residential density, intersection density, and retail FAR. Also, the presence of vacant lots is not as high as it is in Northern block groups. They have big parcels of land dedicated to schools, vacant rural lands, and playgrounds as well. Policies for these block groups would be based on using these activities as an opportunity to improve walkability and create a sense of a community. Since the major pattern of these block groups is established through time, changing of the structure would not be rational and budget friendly. Actions that would change the structure of these block groups are not proposed.
Future housing developments should increase residential density and provide different housing types. Developments in suburban style should be avoided (long term).
Improve safety and security of the routes from schools to playgrounds and provide proper amenities to encourage walking (long term).
Create incentives for food trucks to have them located near existing amenities such as playgrounds to create sense of a place (long term).
Having vacant lots (proposed rural by the zoning codes) improved so that they can work as community gardens (long term).
Block groups with low-medium walkability index and high proportion of vacant lots:
These block groups have the availability of vacant lands with different land uses proposed by the zoning codes. Vacant rural and residential lands can be observed frequently. Recommended policies seek to best use these vacant lots to improve walkability:
Directing future developments to be implemented in these block groups with strategies such as creating incentives for developers (long term).
Any proposed housing projects should result in different housing types to create diversity and increase residential density (long term).
Improve public transportation accessibility between UB North Campus and adjacent block groups where the ratio of people between 20 and 34 is low (long term).
Looking for opportunities in communities for creating community gardens in rural vacant lots (long term).
In a long run, when there are development projects for these existing vacant lots, there should be a reflection of Williamsville and other older neighborhoods’ structure within these projects. This would help to establish a new character for these suburban neighborhoods where hopefully millennials would choose as a place for living (long term).
